By Jim McCarthy Dec 18, 2009 0 comments

Ticketmaster-Live Nation Merger Wrinkle

I’ve said on several occasions that I expected the Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger to be complete about now.

Obviously, it’s not complete about now…

I knew something had changed when I read that Live Nation had written a brief outlining the ‘flaws’ in the ruling on the merger in the UK.

Because that means they’re fighting.

I expected that the regulators here and in the UK would take a fairly strong posture against the merger, but lay out a list of acceptable conditions that TM-LN could meet to overcome their objections, papers would be shuffled, poses would be struck, and the thing would be approved.

But now, I do not know.  I suppose it’s not news that a “coalition of consumer interest groups” has launched a website called Ticketdisaster.org to oppose the merger.  (Although whenever a supposedly “grassroots” organization happens to have a U.S. Congressperson as its representative, you’re very likely looking at astroturf rather than grassroots, but whatever.  It’s just how the bad old world is.)

So I’m re-re-revising my estimate of the chance of the TM-LN merger happening from “it’s almost certain to go through” to “it will probably go through.”

Stay tuned.  Whatever way this goes, it has significant implications for the live entertainment business.

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