“It Can Be Hurt!”

It seems like monster movies all have that scene where the seemingly invincible creature menacing the town, planet, or summer camp in question finally shows signs that it’s mortal.  The hero lands a blow that makes it recoil or run away or bleed.

And someone says, “it can be hurt!”

The point of which is that something previously thought to be absolutely unstoppable could potentially be stoppable.

In this case, we’re talking about the National Football Leauge, the greatest attendance juggernaut in live entertainment.  By far the most popular spectator sport in the country, each team only has 8 games a year, so demand is high.

And the NFL knows it, putting serious pressure on teams to sell out.  After all, you’ve really just got 8 chances to benefit from the popularity of the game in a whole year.

One of the pressures is that if your team doesn’t sell out, it is “blacked out” in the local TV market.  In a way, this is a bit of a murder-suicide pact because if the team isn’t selling out the stadium, blacking it out on TV certainly isn’t going to help the popularity.

The idea, I believe, is that NFL teams may flirt with the sold out line, and the blackout threat is going to be enough to motivate the team to sell like crazy and make sure the stadium is full.

Seriously, this is typically not a good idea, but it kinda sorta works for the NFL because, as I said, it’s an unstoppable juggernaut.

The evidence for that is that blackouts have nearly become a thing of the past.  Last year, only a handful of games (9) were blacked out during the regular season, for three of the stinkiest teams in the league (Detroit, St. Louis and Oakland, if you’re keeping score at home.)

Back in ’75, only 40% of games even made it to local broadcast!  But as the live product has become more compelling and the NFL gained popularity, that number in this decade has stayed well above the 95% mark, with just a few games a year blacked out in the towns where the team is terrible and the season, for all intents and puposes, is over.

But not this year.  According to this terrific story in the Sports Business Journal, the League announced that it’s possible that up to 12 teams may be facing local blackout this year, including some teams that might lose all their games.

Now, the NFL is fine.  Don’t worry about them. No need to start organizing a benefit gala to raise money for Brett Favre.

But this is something new in the environment.  Clearly, the popularity of football has not waned, but a reversal of a generation-long trend indicates to me that NFL needs to rethink some of its ticket selling practices.

First, of course, the teams have gotten very aggressive on price.  That’s obvious, and I’m sure all 32 teams are evaluating that, even for whatever is still left to be sold for this year.

Second, the NFL has to deal with the fact that the atmosphere at the games is keeping some people away.  While the atmosphere is exciting, it’s also slightly menacing in some places because of the amount of drinking.  That’s all well and good when you’re selling every ticket (in a way), but when it keeps a big part of your fan base away (chiefly women and families), it becomes a real liability when things turn the other direction.

This does affect you if you’re not selling football or even sports.  It affects you in that the NFL not selling out to the same degree is a strong indicator that the short-term economics of live entertainment are perhaps still getting worse.

It also shows you something even more important, which is that no matter how popular your production is, you have to keep your eye on the ball.  Decline threatens anyone and anything who is not on the lookout for it.

Nothing’s invincible; not even the mighty men of the NFL.